In recent years, a section of investors has closely monitored the ‘Halloween effect’ where crypto assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and the stock market tend to perform positively. Historically, Bitcoin has appeared to live up to this superstition, but current market conditions are projecting a gloomy period for BTC during Halloween 2022.
According to historical data acquired by Finbold, Bitcoin has recorded a year-over-year (YoY) price increase over the past three Halloween seasons. However, the price trend is unlikely to be replicated in 2022, with the flagship cryptocurrency consolidating around the $20,000 level.
Based on projections derived from 28,488 respondents from the CoinMarketCap community, during Halloween 2022, Bitcoin would trade at $21,348 as of October 31, representing a -65.17% dip from last year’s value of $61,300.
Bitcoin’s 2021 price during Halloween represented a growth of 344.39% from $13,749 recorded in 2021. The value accounts for a growth of 49.51% from the $9,226 observed during Halloween 2019.
At the same time, BTC’s price in 2019 accounted for a growth of 43.52% from 2018’s value of $6,428. Notably, between the 2017 and 2018 Halloween holidays, the flagship cryptocurrency recorded a 0.61% drop in price.
Bitcoin’s potential to rally after Halloween 2022
The report delved into how Bitcoin’s price might play in the run to Halloween and potentially the rest of 2022. According to the research report:
“The unusual superstition, also known as ‘the Halloween strategy’ and ‘the Halloween indicator,’ may well see a price increase for Bitcoin after October 31 this year, for the remainder of Q4 and heading into next year. However, this will more likely be down to fundamentals and market sentiment as opposed to any hocus pocus.”
Indeed, amid the price speculation, Bitcoin price seems to be stabilizing around $19,000, although it’s currently less than three times the value registered during Halloween 2021.
The data also reveals that investors are taking BTC off crypto exchanges, de-risking the chances of a future sell-off. To put it into perspective, exchanges lost 40,527 BTC in a single day on October 18, 2022, the largest daily amount of Bitcoin to leave trading platforms in the last four months.
Considering that Bitcoin’s volatility is now close to all-time lows, BTC prices might stabilize around the $19,000 mark this Halloween 2022 season.
